Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
51.62%
decreased by 8.52%
1 Week
56.11%
decreased by 4.03%
1 Month
59.44%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 4.25 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 14.7167 | 1.05 |
| αscore | 0.1654 | 0.66 |
| βpersistence | 0.6688 | 1.62 |
| νDF | 4.2516 | 0.29 |
0.669
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 14.7167 | 1.05 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1654 | 0.66 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.6688 | 1.62 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2516 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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