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V-Lab

Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

51.62%

decreased by 8.52%

1 Week

56.11%

decreased by 4.03%

1 Month

59.44%

decreased by 0.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 12, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 4.25 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run14.7167
1.05
αscore0.1654
0.66
βpersistence0.6688
1.62
νDF4.2516
0.29

0.669

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

14.7167
1.05
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1654
0.66
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.6688
1.62
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2516
0.29

Persistence:

0.669

Half-life:

2 days