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V-Lab
V-Lab

Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

80.67%

increased by 2.93%

1 Week

73.73%

decreased by 4.01%

1 Month

66.62%

decreased by 11.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 12, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.9854
0.81
αARCH0.1605
0.67
βGARCH0.7122
1.53
νDF3.8792
0.32

0.712

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.9854
0.81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1605
0.67
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7122
1.53
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8792
0.32

Persistence:

0.712

Half-life:

2 days