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V-Lab
V-Lab

Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

58.63%

increased by 8.87%

1 Week

59.96%

increased by 10.20%

1 Month

61.13%

increased by 11.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 12, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.85 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.0582
0.85
αARCH0.1541
0.65
βGARCH0.7036
1.56
νDF3.8502
0.31

0.704

Persistence

2d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.0582
0.85
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1541
0.65
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7036
1.56
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.8502
0.31

Persistence:

0.704

Half-life:

2 days