V-Lab
Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
80.67%
increased by 2.93%
1 Week
73.73%
decreased by 4.01%
1 Month
66.62%
decreased by 11.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.9854 | 0.81 |
| αARCH | 0.1605 | 0.67 |
| βGARCH | 0.7122 | 1.53 |
| νDF | 3.8792 | 0.32 |
0.712
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.9854 | 0.81 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1605 | 0.67 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7122 | 1.53 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8792 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.712
Half-life:
2 days
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