V-Lab
Wealthfront Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
58.63%
increased by 8.87%
1 Week
59.96%
increased by 10.20%
1 Month
61.13%
increased by 11.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 12, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-lifev = 3.85 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.0582 | 0.85 |
| αARCH | 0.1541 | 0.65 |
| βGARCH | 0.7036 | 1.56 |
| νDF | 3.8502 | 0.31 |
0.704
Persistence2d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0582 | 0.85 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1541 | 0.65 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7036 | 1.56 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8502 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.704
Half-life:
2 days
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