NextBoat Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
81.12%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
81.40%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
81.90%
increased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 4.86 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 28.2075 | 0.72 |
| αscore | 0.0765 | 0.50 |
| βpersistence | 0.8576 | 4.95*** |
| νDF | 4.8588 | 0.12 |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 28.2075 | 0.72 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0765 | 0.50 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8576 | 4.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8588 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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