V-Lab
NextBoat Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
83.65%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Week
84.01%
decreased by 2.50%
1 Month
84.67%
decreased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 13, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 4.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 28.8220 | 0.55 |
| αARCH | 0.0694 | 0.49 |
| βGARCH | 0.8732 | 8.02*** |
| νDF | 4.1460 | 0.14 |
0.873
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.8220 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 0.49 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8732 | 8.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1460 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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