V-Lab
BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
46.30%
decreased by 2.35%
1 Week
46.26%
decreased by 2.39%
1 Month
46.12%
decreased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-lifev = 2.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.1538 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0472 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.9785 | 44.50*** |
| νDF | 2.9502 | 3.47*** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.1538 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0472 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9785 | 44.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.9502 | 3.47*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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