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V-Lab

BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

58.70%

increased by 0.14%

1 Week

58.98%

increased by 0.42%

1 Month

60.11%

increased by 1.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 30, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3582830 trading days (~14217.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0231
1.27
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

1.0000
103.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.8822
0.00
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4474
5.84***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3582830 days