V-Lab
BOYD GROUP SERVICES INC APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
58.70%
1 Week
58.98%
1 Month
60.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 30, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 3582830 trading days (~14217.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 1.0000 | 103.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8822 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4474 | 5.84*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3582830 days
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