V-Lab
News Corp APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.87%
1 Week
25.69%
1 Month
27.22%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2013 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.77 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3467 | 1.36 |
| αARCH | 0.1388 | 3.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7467 | 10.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.1377 | 1.90* |
| δpower | 1.7684 | 2.75*** |
0.877
Persistence5d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3467 | 1.36 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1388 | 3.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7467 | 10.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1377 | 1.90* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7684 | 2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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