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Wal-Mart Stores Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

25.08%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

25.25%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Month

25.88%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wal-Mart Stores Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 75% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.88 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 75% more than positive returnsδ = 0.88 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0253
4.15***
αARCH0.0664
6.04***
βGARCH0.9336
79.52***
γleverage0.3080
3.13***
δpower0.8782
6.34***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0253
4.15***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0664
6.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9336
79.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3080
3.13***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8782
6.34***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days