V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.01%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
29.85%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
29.32%
decreased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2031 | 8.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0503 | 5.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9172 | 56.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0260 | 0.90 |
| γ2 | 0.0038 | 0.08 |
| γ3 | -0.1215 | -3.38*** |
| γ4 | 0.1722 | 5.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.1397 | -3.66*** |
| γ6 | 0.1357 | 2.91*** |
| γ7 | -0.1314 | -2.44** |
| γ8 | 0.0876 | 1.68* |
| γ9 | -0.0496 | -1.33 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2031 | 8.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0503 | 5.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9172 | 56.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0260 | 0.90 |
| γ2 | 0.0038 | 0.08 |
| γ3 | -0.1215 | -3.38*** |
| γ4 | 0.1722 | 5.14*** |
| γ5 | -0.1397 | -3.66*** |
| γ6 | 0.1357 | 2.91*** |
| γ7 | -0.1314 | -2.44** |
| γ8 | 0.0876 | 1.68* |
| γ9 | -0.0496 | -1.33 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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