Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Wal-Mart Stores Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

26.32%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

26.34%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

26.41%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wal-Mart Stores Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2122
8.40***
αARCH0.0503
5.44***
βGARCH0.9167
56.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0283
0.99
γ20.0001
0.00
γ3-0.1192
-3.35***
γ40.1708
5.15***
γ5-0.1390
-3.67***
γ60.1354
2.93***
γ7-0.1316
-2.45**
γ80.0877
1.69*
γ9-0.0494
-1.33

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2122
8.40***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0503
5.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9167
56.53***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0283
0.99
γ20.0001
0.00
γ3-0.1192
-3.35***
γ40.1708
5.15***
γ5-0.1390
-3.67***
γ60.1354
2.93***
γ7-0.1316
-2.45**
γ80.0877
1.69*
γ9-0.0494
-1.33

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days