Wal-Mart Stores Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
24.98%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
25.14%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
25.66%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2057 | 8.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.0500 | 5.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9171 | 56.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0279 | 0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.1186 | -3.36*** |
| γ4 | 0.1704 | 5.19*** |
| γ5 | -0.1390 | -3.70*** |
| γ6 | 0.1356 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | -0.1328 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.0898 | 1.72* |
| γ9 | -0.0510 | -1.37 |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2057 | 8.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0500 | 5.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 56.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0279 | 0.98 |
| γ2 | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.1186 | -3.36*** |
| γ4 | 0.1704 | 5.19*** |
| γ5 | -0.1390 | -3.70*** |
| γ6 | 0.1356 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | -0.1328 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.0898 | 1.72* |
| γ9 | -0.0510 | -1.37 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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