V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.08%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
24.18%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
24.51%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2115 | 8.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 5.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9119 | 54.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0224 | 0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.0112 | 0.24 |
| γ3 | -0.1280 | -3.55*** |
| γ4 | 0.1760 | 5.22*** |
| γ5 | -0.1408 | -3.66*** |
| γ6 | 0.1344 | 2.89*** |
| γ7 | -0.1255 | -2.35** |
| γ8 | 0.0750 | 1.48 |
| γ9 | -0.0367 | -1.04 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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