V-Lab
Johnson & Johnson Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
21.59%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
21.56%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
21.46%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2362 | 11.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8565 | 49.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0080 | 1.22 |
| γ2 | -0.0298 | -2.78*** |
| γ3 | 0.0450 | 4.83*** |
| γ4 | -0.0255 | -2.75*** |
| γ5 | -0.0020 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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