V-Lab
Johnson & Johnson Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
22.53%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
22.41%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
22.04%
decreased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2395 | 11.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0888 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8561 | 49.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0086 | 1.28 |
| γ2 | -0.0307 | -2.84*** |
| γ3 | 0.0452 | 4.87*** |
| γ4 | -0.0248 | -2.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.0029 | -0.44 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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