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V-Lab

Johnson & Johnson Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

27.56%

increased by 1.80%

1 Week

26.96%

increased by 1.20%

1 Month

25.20%

decreased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Johnson & Johnson S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2399
11.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0892
7.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8550
48.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0084
1.27
γ2-0.0305
-2.84***
γ30.0453
4.89***
γ4-0.0253
-2.76***
γ5-0.0023
-0.35

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days