Johnson & Johnson Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
27.72%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
27.10%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Month
25.29%
decreased by 3.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2399 | 11.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0892 | 7.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8550 | 48.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0084 | 1.27 |
| γ2 | -0.0305 | -2.84*** |
| γ3 | 0.0453 | 4.89*** |
| γ4 | -0.0253 | -2.76*** |
| γ5 | -0.0023 | -0.35 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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