V-Lab
Inlif Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
1,367.22%
increased by 318.02%
1 Week
1,822.09%
increased by 772.89%
1 Month
3,017.72%
increased by 1,968.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1642 trading days (~6.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5588 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7002 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2994 | 2.21** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -240.3179 | -1.04 |
| γ2 | 231.4938 | 0.80 |
| γ3 | 49.2739 | 0.37 |
| γ4 | -27.8995 | -0.22 |
| γ5 | -79.5286 | -0.58 |
| γ6 | 137.4281 | 1.12 |
| γ7 | 9.5463 | 0.11 |
| γ8 | -291.7604 | -2.24** |
| γ9 | 422.8978 | 2.53** |
| γ10 | -299.1980 | -2.61*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1642 days
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities