V-Lab
Inlif Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
271.93%
increased by 80.16%
1 Week
284.31%
increased by 92.54%
1 Month
317.57%
increased by 125.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifev = 2.22 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 580.0592 | 0.64 |
| αARCH | 0.2504 | 9.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9499 | 13.20*** |
| νDF | 2.2222 | 18.34*** |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 580.0592 | 0.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2504 | 9.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9499 | 13.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2222 | 18.34*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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