V-Lab
Azio AI Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
107.07%
decreased by 20.53%
1 Week
116.97%
decreased by 10.63%
1 Month
129.88%
increased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 3.06 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 74.3188 | 1.82* |
| αARCH | 0.1706 | 3.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8167 | 8.29*** |
| νDF | 3.0639 | 2.43** |
0.817
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 74.3188 | 1.82* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 3.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8167 | 8.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0639 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
0.817
Half-life:
3 days
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