Azio AI Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
95.59%
decreased by 11.85%
1 Week
107.30%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Month
123.07%
increased by 15.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2017 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 3.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 72.0130 | 2.06** |
| αscore | 0.1679 | 3.49*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8300 | 10.32*** |
| νDF | 3.2967 | 2.22** |
0.830
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 72.0130 | 2.06** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1679 | 3.49*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8300 | 10.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2967 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.830
Half-life:
4 days
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