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Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

84.42%

decreased by 11.88%

1 Week

92.87%

decreased by 3.43%

1 Month

104.89%

increased by 8.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 3.02 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run55.8652
1.37
αscore0.1473
2.30**
βpersistence0.8379
8.12***
νDF3.0218
1.73*

0.838

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

55.8652
1.37
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1473
2.30**
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8379
8.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.0218
1.73*

Persistence:

0.838

Half-life:

4 days