V-Lab
Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
118.48%
decreased by 19.94%
1 Week
120.55%
decreased by 17.87%
1 Month
123.54%
decreased by 14.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 2.70 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 62.3088 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.1507 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.8226 | 6.19*** |
| νDF | 2.7012 | 2.24** |
0.823
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 62.3088 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1507 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8226 | 6.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7012 | 2.24** |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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