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Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

118.48%

decreased by 19.94%

1 Week

120.55%

decreased by 17.87%

1 Month

123.54%

decreased by 14.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 2.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst62.3088
1.17
αARCH0.1507
2.11**
βGARCH0.8226
6.19***
νDF2.7012
2.24**

0.823

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

62.3088
1.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1507
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8226
6.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7012
2.24**

Persistence:

0.823

Half-life:

4 days