Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
84.42%
decreased by 11.88%
1 Week
92.87%
decreased by 3.43%
1 Month
104.89%
increased by 8.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 3.02 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 55.8652 | 1.37 |
| αscore | 0.1473 | 2.30** |
| βpersistence | 0.8379 | 8.12*** |
| νDF | 3.0218 | 1.73* |
0.838
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 55.8652 | 1.37 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1473 | 2.30** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8379 | 8.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0218 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.838
Half-life:
4 days
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