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Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

108.75%

decreased by 16.39%

1 Week

113.96%

decreased by 11.18%

1 Month

121.35%

decreased by 3.79%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 2.70 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst62.6599
1.15
αARCH0.1502
2.13**
βGARCH0.8258
6.24***
νDF2.6951
2.27**

0.826

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

62.6599
1.15
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1502
2.13**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8258
6.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6951
2.27**

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days