Obsidian Therapeutics Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
108.50%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
110.05%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
113.52%
increased by 3.85%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.80* |
| αARCH | 0.0315 | 0.93 |
| βGARCH | 0.8741 | 14.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0063 | 0.15 |
0.909
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.80* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 0.93 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8741 | 14.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0063 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.909
Half-life:
7 days
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