V-Lab
Obsidian Therapeutics Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
97.62%
decreased by 6.41%
1 Week
99.16%
decreased by 4.87%
1 Month
100.49%
decreased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8847 | 5.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1486 | 3.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5493 | 4.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.6475 | -0.55 |
| γ2 | 3.2101 | 1.45 |
| γ3 | -6.0881 | -2.39** |
| γ4 | 6.5647 | 2.33** |
| γ5 | -4.3841 | -1.57 |
| γ6 | 0.5266 | 0.21 |
| γ7 | 2.7342 | 1.23 |
| γ8 | -4.6174 | -1.44 |
0.698
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8847 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1486 | 3.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5493 | 4.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.6475 | -0.55 |
| γ2 | 3.2101 | 1.45 |
| γ3 | -6.0881 | -2.39** |
| γ4 | 6.5647 | 2.33** |
| γ5 | -4.3841 | -1.57 |
| γ6 | 0.5266 | 0.21 |
| γ7 | 2.7342 | 1.23 |
| γ8 | -4.6174 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.698
Half-life:
2 days
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