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V-Lab
V-Lab

Obsidian Therapeutics Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

97.62%

decreased by 6.41%

1 Week

99.16%

decreased by 4.87%

1 Month

100.49%

decreased by 3.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Obsidian Therapeutics Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 7, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8847
5.78***
αARCH0.1486
3.64***
βGARCH0.5493
4.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.6475
-0.55
γ23.2101
1.45
γ3-6.0881
-2.39**
γ46.5647
2.33**
γ5-4.3841
-1.57
γ60.5266
0.21
γ72.7342
1.23
γ8-4.6174
-1.44

0.698

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8847
5.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1486
3.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5493
4.68***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.6475
-0.55
γ23.2101
1.45
γ3-6.0881
-2.39**
γ46.5647
2.33**
γ5-4.3841
-1.57
γ60.5266
0.21
γ72.7342
1.23
γ8-4.6174
-1.44

Persistence:

0.698

Half-life:

2 days