V-Lab
Galera Therapeutics Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
161.21%
increased by 39.51%
1 Week
120.13%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Month
72.68%
decreased by 49.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 7, 2019 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8458 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1327 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5347 | 3.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.8551 | -0.81 |
| γ2 | 4.4116 | 1.12 |
| γ3 | -2.4653 | -0.81 |
| γ4 | -3.9640 | -1.52 |
| γ5 | 8.6992 | 2.25** |
| γ6 | -7.5774 | -1.75* |
| γ7 | 3.8246 | 1.08 |
| γ8 | -3.7426 | -1.18 |
| γ9 | 8.1149 | 2.39** |
| γ10 | -15.7909 | -4.07*** |
Persistence:
0.667
Half-life:
2 days
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