V-Lab
Pineapple Financial Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
55.62%
increased by 13.76%
1 Week
60.22%
increased by 18.36%
1 Month
70.19%
increased by 28.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4494 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.2586 | 2.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6614 | 7.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 1.7240 | 2.67*** |
| γ2 | -3.9313 | -3.27*** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4494 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2586 | 2.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6614 | 7.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 1.7240 | 2.67*** |
| γ2 | -3.9313 | -3.27*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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