V-Lab
Pineapple Financial Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
53.77%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
62.78%
increased by 8.41%
1 Month
72.98%
increased by 18.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:45 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.0794 | 2.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.2387 | 2.47** |
| βGARCH | 0.5587 | 4.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 29.9634 | 3.60*** |
| γ2 | -36.6040 | -3.13*** |
| γ3 | 5.7590 | 0.63 |
| γ4 | 17.4044 | 1.63 |
| γ5 | -39.3362 | -3.37*** |
| γ6 | 36.3216 | 3.47*** |
| γ7 | -25.0029 | -2.40** |
| γ8 | 18.5668 | 2.36** |
0.797
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0794 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2387 | 2.47** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5587 | 4.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 29.9634 | 3.60*** |
| γ2 | -36.6040 | -3.13*** |
| γ3 | 5.7590 | 0.63 |
| γ4 | 17.4044 | 1.63 |
| γ5 | -39.3362 | -3.37*** |
| γ6 | 36.3216 | 3.47*** |
| γ7 | -25.0029 | -2.40** |
| γ8 | 18.5668 | 2.36** |
Persistence:
0.797
Half-life:
3 days
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