V-Lab
HP Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
40.29%
increased by 2.37%
1 Week
40.04%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
39.27%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9199 | 6.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0401 | 4.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9180 | 56.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0428 | -0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.1102 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.1444 | -2.79*** |
| γ4 | 0.0754 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | 0.0774 | 1.89* |
| γ6 | -0.1497 | -3.36*** |
| γ7 | 0.1234 | 2.86*** |
| γ8 | -0.0688 | -1.46 |
| γ9 | 0.0198 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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