HP Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
41.33%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
41.07%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
40.23%
decreased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9603 | 7.16*** |
| αARCH | 0.0404 | 4.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9192 | 57.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0342 | -0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.0987 | 1.17 |
| γ3 | -0.1419 | -2.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.0788 | 1.82* |
| γ5 | 0.0718 | 1.72* |
| γ6 | -0.1469 | -3.24*** |
| γ7 | 0.1240 | 2.85*** |
| γ8 | -0.0695 | -1.56 |
| γ9 | 0.0192 | 0.46 |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9603 | 7.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9192 | 57.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0342 | -0.62 |
| γ2 | 0.0987 | 1.17 |
| γ3 | -0.1419 | -2.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.0788 | 1.82* |
| γ5 | 0.0718 | 1.72* |
| γ6 | -0.1469 | -3.24*** |
| γ7 | 0.1240 | 2.85*** |
| γ8 | -0.0695 | -1.56 |
| γ9 | 0.0192 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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