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V-Lab

HP Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

58.06%

increased by 1.84%

1 Week

57.79%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

56.77%

increased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of HP Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 daysv = 4.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.9573
0.91
αARCH0.0546
8.55***
βGARCH0.9916
104.01***
νDF4.4075
2.78***

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9573
0.91
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0546
8.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
104.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4075
2.78***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days