V-Lab
HP Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
58.06%
1 Week
57.79%
1 Month
56.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.9573 | 0.91 |
| αARCH | 0.0546 | 8.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9916 | 104.01*** |
| νDF | 4.4075 | 2.78*** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9573 | 0.91 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0546 | 8.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 104.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4075 | 2.78*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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