V-Lab
HP Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
49.73%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
49.49%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
48.60%
decreased by 1.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.73) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0573 | 2.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.0338 | 5.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9537 | 113.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.7254 | 2.10** |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0573 | 2.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0338 | 5.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9537 | 113.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7254 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equities