V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
43.65%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
43.30%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Month
42.04%
decreased by 2.71%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.90) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0451 | 11.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0423 | 34.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9391 | 540.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8972 | 22.38*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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