V-Lab
Caterpillar Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
35.32%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
35.23%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
34.88%
decreased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.89) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0470 | 3.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.0427 | 8.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9382 | 133.08*** |
| γleverage | 0.8914 | 5.54*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0470 | 3.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 8.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9382 | 133.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8914 | 5.54*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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