V-Lab
Ford Motor Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.15%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
31.37%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
32.16%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.19) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0836 | 15.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0641 | 34.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9209 | 407.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1861 | 3.53*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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