Ford Motor Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
33.42%
increased by 0.74%
1 Week
35.07%
increased by 2.39%
1 Month
37.36%
increased by 4.68%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0989 | 25.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7254 | 63.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0309 | 5.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0134 | 2.41** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0165 | 4.42*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9810 | 217.04*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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