V-Lab
Ford Motor Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
39.59%
1 Week
39.56%
1 Month
39.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.4925 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.0529 | 8.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9925 | 143.40*** |
| νDF | 5.4456 | 2.01** |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4925 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 143.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4456 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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