Ford Motor Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
28.89%
1 Week
29.03%
1 Month
29.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.98 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.6258 | 1.11 |
| αscore | 0.0542 | 8.23*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9927 | 147.50*** |
| νDF | 5.9845 | 1.71* |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.6258 | 1.11 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0542 | 8.23*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 147.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.9845 | 1.71* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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