V-Lab
Ford Motor Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
41.90%
increased by 1.94%
1 Week
41.83%
increased by 1.87%
1 Month
41.58%
increased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4918 | 4.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0530 | 34.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 571.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4417 | 8.03*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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