V-Lab
Ford Motor Co Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
42.31%
1 Week
39.14%
1 Month
31.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 0.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0530 | 4.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.1939 | 17.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7894 | 65.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.0597 | 2.52** |
| δpower | 0.6669 | 4.29*** |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0530 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1939 | 17.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7894 | 65.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0597 | 2.52** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6669 | 4.29*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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