V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
29.13%
1 Week
27.37%
1 Month
22.70%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 24% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.74 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0451 | 6.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.1703 | 15.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8114 | 65.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.1431 | 6.48*** |
| δpower | 0.7369 | 4.45*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0451 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1703 | 15.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8114 | 65.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1431 | 6.48*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7369 | 4.45*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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