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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

27.81%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

27.94%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

28.39%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 340% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 340% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0169
1.67*
βGARCH0.9076
50.00***
γleverage0.0576
3.67***
λ₁tau intercept0.0024
0.56
λ₂forecast adj.0.0036
1.03
λ₃tau persistence0.9956
200.80***

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0169
1.67*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9076
50.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0576
3.67***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0024
0.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0036
1.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9956
200.80***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days