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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

26.35%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

26.59%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

27.36%

increased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 338% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 338% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0170
1.68*
βGARCH0.9073
49.86***
γleverage0.0576
3.66***
λ₁tau intercept0.0024
0.56
λ₂forecast adj.0.0036
1.03
λ₃tau persistence0.9956
199.11***

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0170
1.68*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9073
49.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0576
3.66***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0024
0.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0036
1.03
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9956
199.11***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days