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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

24.71%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

24.93%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

25.59%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 339% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0176
5.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9070
166.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0596
12.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0021
0.83
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0031
1.41
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9961
310.32***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days