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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

32.86%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

32.53%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

31.61%

decreased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 323% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0176
5.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9069
148.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0570
11.21***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0024
0.84
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0037
1.36
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9955
260.26***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days