V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
24.71%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
24.93%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
25.59%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 339% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0176 | 5.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 166.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0596 | 12.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0021 | 0.83 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0031 | 1.41 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9961 | 310.32*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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