V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
32.86%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
32.53%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
31.61%
decreased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 323% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0176 | 5.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 148.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0570 | 11.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0024 | 0.84 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0037 | 1.36 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9955 | 260.26*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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