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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

26.94%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Week

26.92%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Month

26.86%

decreased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.82) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0404
2.82***
αARCH0.0429
7.11***
βGARCH0.9324
103.85***
γleverage0.8207
3.88***

0.975

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0404
2.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0429
7.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9324
103.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8207
3.88***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days