Skip to main content
V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

34.37%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

34.04%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Month

32.90%

decreased by 2.20%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.82) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0396
2.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0428
7.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9330
105.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8191
3.87***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days