NVIDIA Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
43.48%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Week
44.54%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
48.24%
increased by 2.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 1.38) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0990 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0916 | 36.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8967 | 422.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.3837 | 13.84*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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