V-Lab
NVIDIA Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
46.07%
increased by 2.20%
1 Week
46.69%
increased by 2.82%
1 Month
49.02%
increased by 5.15%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1546 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0377 | 2.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9247 | 88.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.0656 | 2.82*** |
0.995
Persistence146d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1546 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0377 | 2.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9247 | 88.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0656 | 2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
146 days
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