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NVIDIA Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

46.07%

increased by 2.20%

1 Week

46.69%

increased by 2.82%

1 Month

49.02%

increased by 5.15%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NVIDIA Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 146 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~146 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1546
3.81***
αARCH0.0377
2.99***
βGARCH0.9247
88.48***
γleverage0.0656
2.82***

0.995

Persistence

146d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1546
3.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0377
2.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9247
88.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0656
2.82***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

146 days