NVIDIA Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.06%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
41.81%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
44.57%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 145 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~145 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 173% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1546 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0380 | 3.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9243 | 88.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0658 | 2.83*** |
0.995
Persistence145d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1546 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0380 | 3.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9243 | 88.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0658 | 2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
145 days
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