V-Lab
NVIDIA Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
36.53%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
37.14%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
38.67%
increased by 2.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2620 | 7.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0686 | 6.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8623 | 39.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0670 | -0.72 |
| γ2 | -0.0404 | -0.26 |
| γ3 | 0.3238 | 2.69*** |
| γ4 | -0.4073 | -2.78*** |
| γ5 | 0.2063 | 1.34 |
| γ6 | 0.1744 | 1.44 |
| γ7 | -0.3935 | -3.38*** |
| γ8 | 0.3774 | 3.19*** |
| γ9 | -0.3209 | -3.30*** |
| γ10 | 0.2036 | 3.33*** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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