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V-Lab

Skyline Builders Group HLD Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

83.91%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

83.91%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

83.91%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Skyline Builders Group HLD Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9597
3.36***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8664
0.54
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-57.3607
-1.75*
γ2156.7703
2.63***
γ3-182.5277
-2.81***
γ4104.2474
1.67*
γ5-41.8075
-0.91
γ649.9066
1.48
γ7-28.3760
-1.16
γ8-13.7213
-0.69
γ918.1768
1.00

0.866

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9597
3.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8664
0.54
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-57.3607
-1.75*
γ2156.7703
2.63***
γ3-182.5277
-2.81***
γ4104.2474
1.67*
γ5-41.8075
-0.91
γ649.9066
1.48
γ7-28.3760
-1.16
γ8-13.7213
-0.69
γ918.1768
1.00

Persistence:

0.866

Half-life:

5 days