V-Lab
Skyline Builders Group HLD Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
83.91%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
83.91%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
83.91%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9597 | 3.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8664 | 0.54 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -57.3607 | -1.75* |
| γ2 | 156.7703 | 2.63*** |
| γ3 | -182.5277 | -2.81*** |
| γ4 | 104.2474 | 1.67* |
| γ5 | -41.8075 | -0.91 |
| γ6 | 49.9066 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | -28.3760 | -1.16 |
| γ8 | -13.7213 | -0.69 |
| γ9 | 18.1768 | 1.00 |
0.866
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9597 | 3.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8664 | 0.54 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -57.3607 | -1.75* |
| γ2 | 156.7703 | 2.63*** |
| γ3 | -182.5277 | -2.81*** |
| γ4 | 104.2474 | 1.67* |
| γ5 | -41.8075 | -0.91 |
| γ6 | 49.9066 | 1.48 |
| γ7 | -28.3760 | -1.16 |
| γ8 | -13.7213 | -0.69 |
| γ9 | 18.1768 | 1.00 |
Persistence:
0.866
Half-life:
5 days
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