V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
214.82%
decreased by 12.14%
1 Week
246.78%
increased by 19.82%
1 Month
342.44%
increased by 115.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7691 | 1.99** |
| αARCH | 0.2613 | 4.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7318 | 15.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.8385 | 1.16 |
| γ2 | -12.8227 | -0.93 |
| γ3 | -7.7929 | -0.57 |
| γ4 | 45.4973 | 1.59 |
| γ5 | -68.2339 | -1.79* |
| γ6 | 40.3624 | 1.38 |
| γ7 | -11.6166 | -0.76 |
| γ8 | -0.9295 | -0.10 |
| γ9 | 11.1613 | 1.26 |
| γ10 | -11.5582 | -2.25** |
0.993
Persistence100d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7691 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2613 | 4.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7318 | 15.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.8385 | 1.16 |
| γ2 | -12.8227 | -0.93 |
| γ3 | -7.7929 | -0.57 |
| γ4 | 45.4973 | 1.59 |
| γ5 | -68.2339 | -1.79* |
| γ6 | 40.3624 | 1.38 |
| γ7 | -11.6166 | -0.76 |
| γ8 | -0.9295 | -0.10 |
| γ9 | 11.1613 | 1.26 |
| γ10 | -11.5582 | -2.25** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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