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V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

347.17%

increased by 39.63%

1 Week

365.20%

increased by 57.66%

1 Month

426.81%

increased by 119.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:23 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5368
1.75*
αARCH0.2625
4.68***
βGARCH0.7299
15.38***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ111.0831
1.01
γ2-11.9763
-0.82
γ3-6.2572
-0.51
γ440.4940
1.68*
γ5-63.4270
-1.92*
γ639.8064
1.46
γ7-13.9796
-0.91
γ82.6134
0.28
γ97.2506
0.76
γ10-8.9854
-1.55

0.992

Persistence

90d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5368
1.75*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2625
4.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7299
15.38***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ111.0831
1.01
γ2-11.9763
-0.82
γ3-6.2572
-0.51
γ440.4940
1.68*
γ5-63.4270
-1.92*
γ639.8064
1.46
γ7-13.9796
-0.91
γ82.6134
0.28
γ97.2506
0.76
γ10-8.9854
-1.55

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

90 days