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V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

214.82%

decreased by 12.14%

1 Week

246.78%

increased by 19.82%

1 Month

342.44%

increased by 115.48%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7691
1.99**
αARCH0.2613
4.86***
βGARCH0.7318
15.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ111.8385
1.16
γ2-12.8227
-0.93
γ3-7.7929
-0.57
γ445.4973
1.59
γ5-68.2339
-1.79*
γ640.3624
1.38
γ7-11.6166
-0.76
γ8-0.9295
-0.10
γ911.1613
1.26
γ10-11.5582
-2.25**

0.993

Persistence

100d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7691
1.99**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2613
4.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7318
15.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ111.8385
1.16
γ2-12.8227
-0.93
γ3-7.7929
-0.57
γ445.4973
1.59
γ5-68.2339
-1.79*
γ640.3624
1.38
γ7-11.6166
-0.76
γ8-0.9295
-0.10
γ911.1613
1.26
γ10-11.5582
-2.25**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

100 days