V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
347.17%
increased by 39.63%
1 Week
365.20%
increased by 57.66%
1 Month
426.81%
increased by 119.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:23 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~90 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5368 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.2625 | 4.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7299 | 15.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.0831 | 1.01 |
| γ2 | -11.9763 | -0.82 |
| γ3 | -6.2572 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | 40.4940 | 1.68* |
| γ5 | -63.4270 | -1.92* |
| γ6 | 39.8064 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | -13.9796 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 2.6134 | 0.28 |
| γ9 | 7.2506 | 0.76 |
| γ10 | -8.9854 | -1.55 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5368 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2625 | 4.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7299 | 15.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 11.0831 | 1.01 |
| γ2 | -11.9763 | -0.82 |
| γ3 | -6.2572 | -0.51 |
| γ4 | 40.4940 | 1.68* |
| γ5 | -63.4270 | -1.92* |
| γ6 | 39.8064 | 1.46 |
| γ7 | -13.9796 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 2.6134 | 0.28 |
| γ9 | 7.2506 | 0.76 |
| γ10 | -8.9854 | -1.55 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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