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Allurion Technologies Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

263.97%

increased by 39.76%

1 Week

263.97%

increased by 39.76%

1 Month

263.98%

increased by 39.77%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0012
1.29
αARCH0.0877
0.40
βGARCH0.8600
4.46***
γleverage0.1046
0.58

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0877
0.40
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8600
4.46***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1046
0.58

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days