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V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

211.04%

decreased by 14.69%

1 Week

211.04%

decreased by 14.69%

1 Month

211.05%

decreased by 14.68%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Allurion Technologies Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0012
4.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0897
1.62
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8595
17.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1016
2.07**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days