V-Lab
Allurion Technologies Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
211.04%
1 Week
211.04%
1 Month
211.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 113% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 4.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0897 | 1.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8595 | 17.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1016 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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