Allurion Technologies Inc EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
374.30%
increased by 78.61%
1 Week
404.02%
increased by 108.33%
1 Month
563.27%
increased by 267.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 224 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~224 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0935 | 1.46 |
| αARCH | 0.4743 | 2.15** |
| βGARCH | 0.9969 | 243.27*** |
| γleverage | -0.1433 | -1.00 |
0.997
Persistence224d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0935 | 1.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4743 | 2.15** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 243.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1433 | -1.00 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
224 days
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