Allurion Technologies Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
349.28%
1 Week
348.93%
1 Month
347.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.5392 | 1.57 |
| αscore | 0.1520 | 17.50*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 1,556.07*** |
| νDF | 2.7679 | 57.76*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.5392 | 1.57 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1520 | 17.50*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,556.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7679 | 57.76*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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