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Allurion Technologies Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

349.28%

increased by 64.45%

1 Week

348.93%

increased by 64.10%

1 Month

347.55%

increased by 62.72%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 2.77 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.5392
1.57
αscore0.1520
17.50***
βpersistence0.9990
1,556.07***
νDF2.7679
57.76***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.5392
1.57
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1520
17.50***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,556.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7679
57.76***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days