V-Lab
AIM ImmunoTech Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
106.04%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
105.72%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
104.81%
decreased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 3.51 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 42.1471 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.1714 | 9.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9414 | 35.68*** |
| νDF | 3.5092 | 5.66*** |
0.941
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 42.1471 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1714 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9414 | 35.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5092 | 5.66*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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