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Virtuix Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

76.84%

decreased by 7.18%

1 Week

97.29%

increased by 13.27%

1 Month

153.07%

increased by 69.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Virtuix Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 237 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~237 daysv = 3.64 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2,444.3044
1.02
αARCH0.2449
5.82***
βGARCH0.9971
368.33***
νDF3.6434
1.75*

0.997

Persistence

237d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2,444.3044
1.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2449
5.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
368.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6434
1.75*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

237 days