V-Lab
Virtuix Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
136.84%
1 Week
151.80%
1 Month
199.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 197 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2,518.0675 | 1.01 |
| αARCH | 0.2499 | 5.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9965 | 316.95*** |
| νDF | 3.6136 | 1.71* |
0.996
Persistence197d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2,518.0675 | 1.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2499 | 5.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9965 | 316.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6136 | 1.71* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
197 days
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