V-Lab
Virtuix Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
76.84%
decreased by 7.18%
1 Week
97.29%
increased by 13.27%
1 Month
153.07%
increased by 69.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 237 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~237 daysv = 3.64 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2,444.3044 | 1.02 |
| αARCH | 0.2449 | 5.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9971 | 368.33*** |
| νDF | 3.6434 | 1.75* |
0.997
Persistence237d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2,444.3044 | 1.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2449 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9971 | 368.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6434 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
237 days
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