Procter & Gamble Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
24.57%
1 Week
24.55%
1 Month
24.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.1461 | 1.04 |
| αscore | 0.0653 | 9.51*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9930 | 142.92*** |
| νDF | 5.6672 | 2.44** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.1461 | 1.04 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0653 | 9.51*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 142.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6672 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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