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V-Lab

Procter & Gamble Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

24.90%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

24.87%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

24.76%

decreased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Procter & Gamble Co/The GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0602
4.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0628
37.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9927
549.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3541
10.18***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

95 days