Procter & Gamble Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.14%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
21.16%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
21.25%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 daysv = 5.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0383 | 1.05 |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 9.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9925 | 134.86*** |
| νDF | 5.3889 | 2.50** |
0.993
Persistence93d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0383 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 9.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 134.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3889 | 2.50** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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