V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.18%
increased by 0.57%
1 Week
18.26%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
18.54%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0301 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 36.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9925 | 534.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3631 | 10.00*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
92 days
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