Procter & Gamble Co/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
25.86%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
25.75%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
25.34%
decreased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0175 | 2.25** |
| αARCH | 0.0689 | 10.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9147 | 122.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.4530 | 4.54*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0175 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0689 | 10.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9147 | 122.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4530 | 4.54*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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