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V-Lab

American Express Co AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

17.06%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

17.69%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

19.87%

increased by 2.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of American Express Co AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0770
13.24***
βGARCH0.9136
159.00***
γleverage0.8407
6.30***

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0770
13.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9136
159.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8407
6.30***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days