V-Lab
American Express Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
26.97%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
27.21%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
28.13%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 213 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0354 | 17.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0170 | 13.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9279 | 748.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1037 | 26.74*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
213 days
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