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V-Lab

American Express Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

26.97%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

27.21%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

28.13%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of American Express Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 213 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0354
17.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0170
13.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9279
748.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1037
26.74***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

213 days