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V-Lab

American Express Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

19.03%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

19.43%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

20.91%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of American Express Co GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~201 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0354
4.30***
αARCH0.0175
3.43***
βGARCH0.9277
186.51***
γleverage0.1027
6.61***

0.997

Persistence

201d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0354
4.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0175
3.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9277
186.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1027
6.61***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

201 days