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Jaguar Uranium Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

114.88%

decreased by 44.31%

1 Week

125.37%

decreased by 33.82%

1 Month

160.62%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Jaguar Uranium Corp GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 10, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
1.76*
αARCH0.3020
1.85*
βGARCH0.4482
3.76***
γleverage0.4997
0.88

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.76*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3020
1.85*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4482
3.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4997
0.88

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-