V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
38.89%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Week
38.79%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
38.47%
decreased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 181% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1574 | 5.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0555 | 4.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8656 | 54.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.1003 | 2.90*** |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1574 | 5.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 4.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8656 | 54.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1003 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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