V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.25%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
31.60%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
32.75%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 181% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 181% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1592 | 5.41*** |
| αARCH | 0.0557 | 4.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8646 | 54.32*** |
| γleverage | 0.1006 | 2.90*** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1592 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 4.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8646 | 54.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1006 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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