V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
39.50%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
39.47%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Month
39.34%
decreased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysv = 4.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.5569 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0634 | 8.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9918 | 115.52*** |
| νDF | 4.8831 | 2.47** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.5569 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0634 | 8.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9918 | 115.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8831 | 2.47** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
Other Interactive Brokers Group Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities