V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
41.32%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Week
41.26%
decreased by 2.48%
1 Month
41.04%
decreased by 2.70%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.6318 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0652 | 33.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 444.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8227 | 10.03*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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