Skip to main content
V-Lab

Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

41.32%

decreased by 2.42%

1 Week

41.26%

decreased by 2.48%

1 Month

41.04%

decreased by 2.70%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.6318
3.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0652
33.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9915
444.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8227
10.03***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days