Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
44.71%
1 Week
44.60%
1 Month
44.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 5.4943 | 0.97 |
| αscore | 0.0631 | 8.19*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9916 | 115.02*** |
| νDF | 5.0511 | 2.26** |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 5.4943 | 0.97 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0631 | 8.19*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 115.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0511 | 2.26** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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