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Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

44.71%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

44.60%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

44.16%

decreased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Interactive Brokers Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.05 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 daysv = 5.05 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.4943
0.97
αscore0.0631
8.19***
βpersistence0.9916
115.02***
νDF5.0511
2.26**

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.4943
0.97
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0631
8.19***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9916
115.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0511
2.26**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days