V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.01%
increased by 3.65%
1 Week
41.23%
increased by 3.87%
1 Month
41.75%
increased by 4.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 274% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0591 | 13.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6949 | 56.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1623 | 18.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0910 | 1.54 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0924 | 2.15** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8864 | 15.77*** |
Persistence:
0.835
Half-life:
4 days
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