V-Lab
Interactive Brokers Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
37.93%
decreased by 2.95%
1 Week
38.84%
decreased by 2.04%
1 Month
40.23%
decreased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 287% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 13.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6973 | 56.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1637 | 18.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0873 | 1.49 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0923 | 2.15** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8878 | 15.89*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equities