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Interactive Brokers Group Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

35.47%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

37.17%

increased by 2.40%

1 Month

39.58%

increased by 4.81%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Interactive Brokers Group Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 268% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 268% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0593
3.38***
βGARCH0.6953
18.19***
γleverage0.1589
4.46***
λ₁tau intercept0.0904
1.29
λ₂forecast adj.0.0931
1.92*
λ₃tau persistence0.8858
14.06***

0.834

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0593
3.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6953
18.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1589
4.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0904
1.29
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0931
1.92*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8858
14.06***

Persistence:

0.834

Half-life:

4 days