V-Lab
Kyntra Bio Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
64.12%
decreased by 35.27%
1 Week
64.95%
decreased by 34.44%
1 Month
66.93%
decreased by 32.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 14, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.1238 | 2.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2691 | 2.20** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 2.00** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.4188 | 1.04 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1426 | 1.25 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8164 | 5.98*** |
0.643
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1238 | 2.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2691 | 2.20** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 2.00** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.4188 | 1.04 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1426 | 1.25 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8164 | 5.98*** |
Persistence:
0.643
Half-life:
2 days
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