V-Lab
Blue Owl Capital Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.32%
1 Week
19,138,777,014,219.06%
1 Month
278,015,985,151,933,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2019 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9537 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0926 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.2858 | 91.81*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2843 | 305.72*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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