V-Lab
Blue Owl Capital Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
20.67%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
23.54%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
27.77%
increased by 6.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5802 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2379 | 4.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6148 | 10.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -1.4696 | -4.06*** |
| γ2 | 2.5424 | 4.69*** |
| γ3 | -2.1406 | -5.63*** |
| γ4 | 2.0831 | 5.76*** |
| γ5 | -1.4658 | -5.98*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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