V-Lab
Blue Owl Capital Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
29.14%
increased by 2.72%
1 Week
28.47%
increased by 2.05%
1 Month
26.54%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9744 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1516 | 15.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9422 | 115.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5211 | 4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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