V-Lab
Blue Owl Capital Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
14.39%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
15.41%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
17.99%
increased by 2.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 2019 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 5.62 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9804 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.1476 | 3.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9447 | 30.43*** |
| νDF | 5.6197 | 1.22 |
0.945
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9804 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1476 | 3.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9447 | 30.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6197 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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