V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
30.71%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
30.69%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Month
30.63%
decreased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4994 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 37.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 546.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1094 | 10.35*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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