V-Lab
Walt Disney Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
27.56%
1 Week
27.60%
1 Month
27.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4952 | 1.18 |
| αARCH | 0.0589 | 9.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9916 | 137.01*** |
| νDF | 5.1242 | 2.57** |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4952 | 1.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 9.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 137.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1242 | 2.57** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
Other Walt Disney Co/The Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities