Walt Disney Co/The GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026
1 Day
23.15%
1 Week
23.28%
1 Month
23.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.6363 | 1.17 |
| αscore | 0.0616 | 9.48*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9922 | 144.53*** |
| νDF | 5.4943 | 2.39** |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.6363 | 1.17 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0616 | 9.48*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 144.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4943 | 2.39** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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